7am OBS, Happy Mothers Day, Sunday, May 12th
Beautiful morning w/ sunny skies early but still a chance of isolated heavy rain showers possible across the islands later today. Light-moderate E-ESE trades filling. No marine warnings.
Fading SSW. Fading NNW. Tiny East trade swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 9 sec NNW. Clean conditions expected all day with lite offshore winds. Sunset 1-3'; Rocky Pt 1-2' occ. 3'; Pipe/Backdoor 1-2'+; Chuns 1-2' occ. 3'; Laniakea 1-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Partly cloudy skies.West:
Dropping slow 15 sec SSW + Dropping 9 sec NNW. Clean conditions expected all day. Makaha is 1-2' occ. +, breaking behind the reef. Mostly sunny skies.Town:
Dropping slow 15 sec SSW. Clean and glassy w/ calm winds early, becoming mushy as side-shore E-ESE winds pickup midday. Waikiki reefs are 1-occ. 2', Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. 3'. Long lulls between sets and mostly sunny skies.Diamond Head:
Dropping slow 15 sec SSW. Clean and glassy w/ calm winds early, becoming mushy as side-shore E-ESE winds pickup midday. Surf's 1-3'. Long lulls between sets and mostly sunny skies.Sandy's:
Dropping slow 15 sec SSW + tiny Trade swell. Mostly clean conditions early, becoming mushy by mid-moring as E-ESE winds fill. Full Pt./Half Pt. 1-3'. Shore break's also fun at 1-2' occ. 3' under scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Holding 6 sec ENE trade swell + fading North wrap. Slight bump due to lite trades. Surf's 1-2' occ. 3' on the North wrap, breaking on the left side of the bay. Keiki's is also 1-2'+. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-15mph ESE
5-15+mph ESE
5-10mph ESE
5-15+mph SSW Kona
20 mph later
5-7mph Variables
North
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 19s NNWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
4' midday
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Rising 16s NWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor onshore
Primary
Up & holding 13s NNWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
Dropping 10s NWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
West
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Dropping Slow 13s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SSWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Poor onshore
Primary
Up & holding 13s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Up & Rising 20s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Fair
South
Primary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping Slow 13s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising Slow 18s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SSWHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Secondary
Rising Slow 22s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Poor onshore
Primary
Up & Rising 20s SSWHaw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Secondary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Good early , fair later
5' late afternoon
east
Primary
Dropping 19s NHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Holding 6s ENEHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Mushy
Primary
Rising 7s ENEHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Rising 12s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Mushy
Primary
Up & dropping 10s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Typical
Primary
Holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 9s NEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good offshores
Primary
Rising 11s NHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Current Swells:
Sunday 05/12Primary: Dropping 15s SSW surf @1-3
Secondary: Dropping 9s N surf @1-3
Third: Dropping 19s N surf @1-2 occ 3
Marine Warnings:
Sunday 05/12None
Sailing Report:
Sunday 05/12Fair as light-moderate E to ESE winds fill
Diving Report:
Sunday 05/12North shores: Fair due to fading NNW swell and offshore winds. Best bet: deeper dives; West shores: Fair for most zones due to fading NNW swell, dropping SSW swell, and lite offshore winds; better for deeper dives. South shores: Fair overall with dropping SSW swell and lite-moderate side-shore winds. East shores: Fair due to small surf and moderate onshores.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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