Surf News Network

615am OBS, Tuesday, October 15th

Scattered clouds with isolated windward and mauka showers. Moderate East trades filling to moderate to fresh paces towards lunch. High Surf Advisory for the North shores of all islands. Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters due to large, open ocean swell.

Big Picture updated 10/13. Large NNW. Small South & ENE trade wind swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

North Shore:

Up & Dropping 15 sec NNW. Clean conditions early due to a light to moderate offshore breeze. Some nearshore spots are closing out on the bigger sets with outer reefs occasionally going off. Sunset 8-10' occ. 12'; Rocky Pt 6-8'+; Pipe 5-8'; Chuns 4-6'+; Laniakea 6-10'; Ali'i Beach Park 4-6'+. Scattered clouds.

West:

Up & Dropping 15 sec NNW + Dropping 12 sec South. Clean conditions under light offshore winds. Makaha is 4-6' and breaking outside in middle of the bay with the point going active on the largest sets. Mostly clear skies.

Town:

Dropping 12 sec South. Clean conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Mostly clear skies.

Diamond Head:

Dropping 12 sec South + Rising East wrap. Bumpy, lumpy, and textured due to moderate to fresh sideshore trades. Surf's 1-2' occ. + at takeoff. Few clouds.

Sandy's:

Up & Dropping North wrap + Up & Rising East trade wind swell + Dropping 12 sec South. Quite a bit of ruffle and texture in the water due to moderate to fresh sideshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt to Generals are 2-4'. Shorebreak is cleaner at 1-2' occ. 3'. Partly cloudy skies.

East Makapu'u:

Up & Dropping North wrap + Up & Rising 7 sec East trade wind swell. Bumpy conditions due to moderate to fresh trades. Surf's 1-2' occ. 3' and very occasionally breaking on the outside middle and peeling into the Keiki shorebreak on the right side of the bay. Scattered clouds.

Winds

Tuesday

Range:
10-25mph East Trade

Wednesday

Range:
10-25mph East Trade

Thursday

Range:
10-20+mph East Trade

Friday

Range:
10-20mph ENE to E

Saturday

Range:
10-20+mph ENE to E

North

Tuesday

10/15

Primary

Up & dropping 15s NNW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Wednesday

10/16

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

Rising Later 16s WNW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good

Thursday

10/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Up & holding 13s WNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good

Friday

10/18

Primary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 11s NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
+ R midday 15s NW@1-1.5

Saturday

10/19

Primary

Up & Rising 13s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
3' later

West

Tuesday

10/15

Primary

Up & dropping 15s NNW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15

Secondary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good offshores

Wednesday

10/16

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday

10/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday

10/18

Primary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Saturday

10/19

Primary

Up & Rising 13s NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Up & holding 16s SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

South

Tuesday

10/15

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday

10/16

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Thursday

10/17

Primary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday

10/18

Primary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Rising Later 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair

Saturday

10/19

Primary

Up & holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair

east

Tuesday

10/15

Primary

Dropping 15s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Up & Rising 7s E
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Lumpy-Bumpy
North wrap

Wednesday

10/16

Primary

Up & holding 7s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Dropping 13s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Lumpy-Bumpy
North wrap

Thursday

10/17

Primary

Dropping 7s E
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 12s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy

Friday

10/18

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
bumpy

Saturday

10/19

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Current Swells:

Tuesday 10/15
Primary: Up & dropping 15s NNW surf @8-10+
Secondary: Dropping 12s S surf @1 occ 2

Marine Warnings:

Tuesday 10/15
High Surf Advisory for North facing shores of all islands. Small Craft Advisory for all waters due to large, open ocean swell.

Sailing Report:

Tuesday 10/15
Good due to fresh East trades.

Diving Report:

Tuesday 10/15
North shores: No-Go due to a large NNW swell. West shores: No-Go for most spots due to large NNW swell. South shores: Fair-Good overall and esp. for deeper zones, due to small surf with moderate side-offshore E-ENE trades under partly cloudy. East shores: Poor overall due to significant North wrap with moderate to fresh onshore trades under partly cloudy skies.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)