6am OBS, Tuesday, October 29th
A warm, humid morning with a scattered, mixed clouds. Moderate ENE trades filling to fresh paces towards lunch. Small Craft Advisory for Oahu-Big Island channel and some surrounding waters.
Big Picture updated 10/27. Above average ENE trade wind swell. Small North + two, overlapping South + East swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 12 sec North + Holding trade wrap. Mostly clean conditions early with some ruffle due to breezy side-offshore winds. Sunset 1-2'+; Rocky Pt 1-2'+; Pipe 1-2'; Chuns 1-2'; Laniakea 2-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Scattered to broken clouds.West:
Dropping 12 sec North + Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 13 sec South. Clean conditions due to moderate offshores but really small surf. Makaha is a mixed plate of 1-1.5' and breaking inside the reef. Partly cloudy skies.Town:
Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 13 sec South. Clean conditions due to breezy offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-occ. 2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are also 1-occ. 2'. Partly cloudy skies.Diamond Head:
Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 13 sec South + Up & Holding East wrap. Chopped up, lumpy conditions under brisk sideshore winds. Surf's 1-2' occ. + at takeoff on the combo peaks. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 13 sec South + Up & Holding East wrap. Textured and bumpy, especially over the reefs. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-3'+. Shorebreak is cleaner at 2-3'. Partly cloudy skies.East Makapu'u:
Up & Holding 8 sec ENE trade wind swell + Dropping 12 sec North + Dropping 13 sec East. Lumpy and bumpy due to moderate to fresh onshore trades. Surf's 2-3'+ and focused on the outside left. Keiki's is smaller at 1-2'+. Scattered clouds.Winds
10-25mph ENE to E
10-25mph ENE Trade
15-25+mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE to E
10-20mph East Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
Up & holding 8s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair-Good side-offshore
windy
Primary
Dropping 12s NNEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 8s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair side-offshores
windy
Primary
Rising 15s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & holding 9s NEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Fair side-offshores
windy
Primary
Holding 12s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 21s NWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Fair
+ R 16s NNE@1-2
Primary
Up & Rising 17s NWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
Up & dropping 15s NNEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Good
7' afternoon
West
Primary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising 16s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary
Dropping 12s NNEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Up & holding 14s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair side-offshores
Primary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Rising 15s NNWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 11s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Holding 12s NNWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Up & Rising 17s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Dropping 10s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
South
Primary
Rising 16s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 14s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 11s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Dropping 10s SHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
east
Primary
Up & holding 8s ENEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Lumpy-Bumpy
+ D 13s E@1-2
Primary
Rising 8s ENEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Dropping 12s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Lumpy-Bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 9s ENEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy , Bumpy, Grumpy
Primary
Dropping 9s ENEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Rising late Afternoon 16s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Lumpy-Bumpy
Primary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
Up & holding 15s NNEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
bumpy
Current Swells:
Tuesday 10/29Primary: Up & holding 8s ENE surf @2-3+
Secondary: Dropping 12s N surf @2-3
Third: Rising 16s S surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 10/29Small Craft Advisory for Oahu windward & leeward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County windward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island leeward & SE waters.
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 10/29Good for the more experienced due to fresh E-ENE trades.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 10/29North shores: Fair to poor due to small surf. West shores: Fair to good for most zones, even better for deeper dives, due to tiny to small surf. South shores: Fair overall but better for deeper zones, due to small surf with moderate trades. East shores: Poor overall due to above average surf with moderate-fresh onshore trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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