7am OBS, Wednesday, November 6th
Mostly cloudy with moderate to fresh NE trades. Small Craft Adv due to 15-25mph NE trades thru the weekend.
Big Picture updated 11/3. Small NW-NNW. Average ENE trade wind swell. No South swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Down and Dropping 11 sec NW-NNW. Nice side offshore NE trades filling to fresh. Sunset 2-3'; Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 2.5'; Chuns 1-3'; Laniakea 1-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Overcast.West:
Down and Dropping short period NW-NNW. Surf's smooth light offshores early. Makaha is 1-2' and breaking inside the reef. Mostly cloudy skies.Town:
Holding tiny background energy. Nice offshore trades. Waikiki reefs are flat'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1'. Cloudy.Diamond Head:
Holding trade wrap. Surf's 1-occ. soft 2' at takeoff. Overcast.Sandy's:
Up on ENE wrap. Semi clean side offshore. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. + later. Shorebreak has some good sandbars 1-2'. Cloudy.East Makapu'u:
Up and rising NE Trade swell. Choppy from moderate-fresh trades. Surf's 1-2'+ and focused on the left side of the bay. Keiki's is smaller at 1-2'. Overcast.Winds
10-25mph NE Trade
10-25mph NE Trade
10-25mph NE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-25mph East Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
Rising 17s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
Rising Nightime 19s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & Rising 17s NNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Poor-fair side-shores
6'+ later
Primary
Holding 13s NNWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Rising Nightime 20s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair to good
West
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Holding 8s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & Rising 17s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Holding 15s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Holding 13s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 13s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Rising 15s SSWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
South
Primary
Holding 8s SHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Secondary
Rising Later 17s SWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Holding 15s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Dropping 13s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Rising 15s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
east
Primary
Rising 6s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Holding 9s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Choppy
Primary
Up & holding 8s NEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy
Primary
Holding 7s NEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Primary
Holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Primary
Holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Current Swells:
Wednesday 11/06Primary: Dropping 11s NNW surf @2-3
Secondary: Rising 6s NE surf @1-2+
Third: Holding 8s S surf @0-1/2
Marine Warnings:
Wednesday 11/06Small Craft Advisory from Ni'ihau to Big Island.
Sailing Report:
Wednesday 11/06Good due to fresh NE trades filling in and lasting through the weekend.
Diving Report:
Wednesday 11/06North shores: Poor to fair (best bet deeper dives) to small NW-NNW swell. West shores: Good due to tiny NNW swell and smooth offshore NE trades. South shores: Good overall due to tiny surf with moderate offshore trades. East shores: Poor to Fair overall due to average trade swell with moderate-fresh onshore NE trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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