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Cholos

645am OBS, Monday, December 23rd

A beautiful morning under mostly clear skies. Light to moderate ENE trades filling to near fresh paces towards lunch. High Surf Warning for North and West shores of Niihau-Oahu-Molokai and North shores of Maui. High Surf Advisory for Big Island North and West shores. Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters due to large, open ocean swell.

Big Picture updated 12/21. XL NNW. Small East trade wind swell. Trace SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Dropping 15 sec NNW. Clean conditions early due to light to moderate offshores, becoming side-offshore in the afternoon. Outer reefs up to 15'. Sunset 10-12'+; Rocky Pt closed out; Pipe 10-12'+ with 2nd reefers; Waimea Bay 10-12'+; Chuns closed out; Laniakea closed out; Ali'i Beach Park 5-8'. Scattered clouds.
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West:

Dropping 15 sec NNW. Surf's clean due to light to moderate offshores. Makaha is 6-8' occ. 10', breaking at the Point and at the Bowl. Mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Holding 12 sec SW. Nice, smooth conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 0-1'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1'. Few clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding 12 sec SW. Ruffled and textured due to near a moderate side-offshore wind. Surf's 1-1.5' at takeoff. Mostly clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Dropping North wrap + Rising trade wind swell. Textured and slightly bumpy over the reefs and cleaner by the shorebreak. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'+. Shorebreak is also 1-2'+. Few clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Dropping North wrap + Rising 5 sec East trade wind swell. Bumpy conditions due to moderate onshore flow. Surf's 1-3' on the shorebreak, focused on the right side and no longer breaking (but trying) on the outside middle. It's smaller at 1-2'+ on the right side. Few clouds.
WET OKOLE 728×90 11.28.23-12.24

Winds

Monday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Tuesday
Range:
10-20mph East Trade
ESE tilt
Wednesday
Range:
10-20mph ESE

Thursday
Range:
5-15mph SE
Light & variable PM
Friday
Range:
5-7mph Variables
North @ 5-10mph PM

North

Monday
12/23

Primary

Dropping 15s NNW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Tuesday
12/24

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent

Wednesday
12/25

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising Midday 18s WNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Good

Thursday
12/26

Primary

Up & Rising 17s WNW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
20' later
Friday
12/27

Primary

Dropping 16s NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later

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West

Monday
12/23

Primary

Dropping 15s NNW
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Holding 12s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Tuesday
12/24

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+

Secondary

Holding 13s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good to excellent
Wednesday
12/25

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Holding 12s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
Thursday
12/26

Primary

Up & Rising 17s WNW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+

Secondary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Friday
12/27

Primary

Dropping 16s NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
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South

Monday
12/23

Primary

Holding 12s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
trades back
Tuesday
12/24

Primary

Holding 13s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Wednesday
12/25

Primary

Holding 12s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Thursday
12/26

Primary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
12/27

Primary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

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east

Monday
12/23

Primary

Rising 5s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 15s N
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Choppy
N wrap; trades back
Tuesday
12/24

Primary

Up & dropping 7s E
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Wednesday
12/25

Primary

Dropping 7s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Thursday
12/26

Primary

Holding 7s E
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin

Friday
12/27

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin

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Current Swells:

Monday 12/23
Primary: Dropping 15s NNW surf @10-15 
Secondary: Rising 5s E surf @1-2 
Third: Holding 12s SW surf @0-1 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   12/23
Trend: None
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Sailing Report:

Monday   12/23
Good due to moderate to fresh ENE trades of 15-25mph.
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Diving Report:

Monday   12/23
North shores: No Go. Extremely Poor and dangerous due to BIG surf. West shores: Poor due to large surf. South shores: Good overall due to tiny surf with moderate trades. East shores: Poor due to rising trade wind swell with dropping NNW wrap and moderate to fresh onshore trades.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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