645am OBS, Wednesday, November 20th
Mostly clear skies.. Moderate ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch. No advisories.
Big Picture updated 11/17. Average ENE trade wind swell. Small NW. Tiny SSW & SSE. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Slowly rising small 17 sec NW. Down Dropping 11 sec NW + trade wind swell wrap. Smooth, clean offshores due to a light trades. Sunset 1 occ 2'; Rocky Pt 1 occ 2'; Pipe lapping on the sand; Chuns 1 occ 2'; Laniakea 1 barely 2'; Ali'i Beach Park 0-1.5'. scattered clouds.West:
Slowly rising tiny17 sec NW. Down Dropping 11 sec NW + Holding tiny 14 sec SSW. Surf's smooth due to an offshores. Makaha is a mixed plate of 0-occ. 1.5' and breaking near the shore. Partly cloudy skies.Town:
Holding 15 sec SSW + tiny down & dropping trade wrap. Nice clean conditions but weak. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-1.5' occ 2' limping in. Few clouds.Diamond Head:
Dropping trade wind swell wrap + Holding 14 sec SSW. It's still a bit bumpy up due to sideshore trades. Surf's 1-2'+ at takeoff. Mostly clear skies.Sandy's:
Down and Dropping ENE trade wind swell wrap + occ pulse of SSW. Some sideshore lump, especially over the reefs. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2.5'. Shorebreak is cleaner with some nice peaks at 1-2.5' and focused by Gas Chambers. Few clouds.East Makapu'u:
Down and Dropping 10 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy Surf at 1-3' and occ breaking on the outside left. Keiki's is smaller at 1-2.5' with nice sand bars. Few clouds.Winds
10-20mph ENE Trade
5-15+mph ENE Trade
Leeward PM sea breezes
5-10mph East Trade
Leeward PM sea breezes
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes
North
Primary
Rising Slow 17s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 11s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & Rising 12s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 12s NNEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 11s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good
Primary
Rising 16s NNEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Rising 17s WNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
5' later
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Up & dropping 13s NNEHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
6' later
West
Primary
Rising Slow 17s NWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Holding 15s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 12s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 14s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Rising 16s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 12s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Holding 11s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
South
Primary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Holding 15s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Holding 14s SHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Holding 12s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin
Primary
Holding 11s SHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
east
Primary
Dropping 10s EHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Primary
Dropping 9s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 12s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 12s NNEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy
Primary
Rising 16s NNEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
4' later
Primary
Dropping 13s NNEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Current Swells:
Wednesday 11/20Primary: Dropping 10s E surf @1-3
Secondary: Rising Slow 17s NW surf @1 occ 2
Third: Dropping 14s SSW surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Wednesday 11/20None.
Sailing Report:
Wednesday 11/20Good due to moderate E-ENE trades
Diving Report:
Wednesday 11/20North shores: Good due to light to moderate trades and a small surf. West shores: Good due to tiny surf and moderate offshore trades. South shores: Good due to tiny surf and moderate trades. East shores: Fair due to small to average surf and moderate trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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