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Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 2.1.23—

7am OBS, Wednesday, November 6th

Mostly cloudy with moderate to fresh NE trades. Small Craft Adv due to 15-25mph NE trades thru the weekend.

Big Picture updated 11/3. Small NW-NNW. Average ENE trade wind swell. No South swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and Dropping 11 sec NW-NNW. Nice side offshore NE trades filling to fresh. Sunset 2-3'; Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 2.5'; Chuns 1-3'; Laniakea 1-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Overcast.
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West:

Down and Dropping short period NW-NNW. Surf's smooth light offshores early. Makaha is 1-2' and breaking inside the reef. Mostly cloudy skies.
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Town:

Holding tiny background energy. Nice offshore trades. Waikiki reefs are flat'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1'. Cloudy.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding trade wrap. Surf's 1-occ. soft 2' at takeoff. Overcast.
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Sandy's:

Up on ENE wrap. Semi clean side offshore. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. + later. Shorebreak has some good sandbars 1-2'. Cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and rising NE Trade swell. Choppy from moderate-fresh trades. Surf's 1-2'+ and focused on the left side of the bay. Keiki's is smaller at 1-2'. Overcast.
Cholos generic 729×90  4.9.24-10.14.24…

Winds

Wednesday
Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Thursday
Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Sunday
Range:
10-25mph East Trade

North

Wednesday
11/06

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Rising 17s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores

Thursday
11/07

Primary

Up & dropping 12s NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

Rising Nightime 19s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores

Friday
11/08

Primary

Up & Rising 17s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Poor-fair side-shores
6'+ later
Saturday
11/09

Primary

Holding 13s NNW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Sunday
11/10

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising Nightime 20s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair to good

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West

Wednesday
11/06

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 8s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor-fair side-shores
Thursday
11/07

Primary

Up & dropping 12s NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Up & holding 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
Friday
11/08

Primary

Up & Rising 17s NNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
Saturday
11/09

Primary

Holding 13s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 13s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Sunday
11/10

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
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South

Wednesday
11/06

Primary

Holding 8s S
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

Rising Later 17s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Thursday
11/07

Primary

Up & holding 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
11/08

Primary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Saturday
11/09

Primary

Dropping 13s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Sunday
11/10

Primary

Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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east

Wednesday
11/06

Primary

Rising 6s NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 9s NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Choppy

Thursday
11/07

Primary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy

Friday
11/08

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Saturday
11/09

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Sunday
11/10

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 11/06
Primary: Dropping 11s NNW surf @2-3 
Secondary: Rising 6s NE surf @1-2+ 
Third: Holding 8s S surf @0-1/2 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   11/06
Small Craft Advisory from Ni'ihau to Big Island.
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   11/06
Good due to fresh NE trades filling in and lasting through the weekend.
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   11/06
North shores: Poor to fair (best bet deeper dives) to small NW-NNW swell. West shores: Good due to tiny NNW swell and smooth offshore NE trades. South shores: Good overall due to tiny surf with moderate offshore trades. East shores: Poor to Fair overall due to average trade swell with moderate-fresh onshore NE trades.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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