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Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 2.1.23—

645am OBS, Wednesday, November 20th

Mostly clear skies.. Moderate ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch. No advisories.

Big Picture updated 11/17. Average ENE trade wind swell. Small NW. Tiny SSW & SSE. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Slowly rising small 17 sec NW. Down Dropping 11 sec NW + trade wind swell wrap. Smooth, clean offshores due to a light trades. Sunset 1 occ 2'; Rocky Pt 1 occ 2'; Pipe lapping on the sand; Chuns 1 occ 2'; Laniakea 1 barely 2'; Ali'i Beach Park 0-1.5'. scattered clouds.
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West:

Slowly rising tiny17 sec NW. Down Dropping 11 sec NW + Holding tiny 14 sec SSW. Surf's smooth due to an offshores. Makaha is a mixed plate of 0-occ. 1.5' and breaking near the shore. Partly cloudy skies.
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Town:

Holding 15 sec SSW + tiny down & dropping trade wrap. Nice clean conditions but weak. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-1.5' occ 2' limping in. Few clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Dropping trade wind swell wrap + Holding 14 sec SSW. It's still a bit bumpy up due to sideshore trades. Surf's 1-2'+ at takeoff. Mostly clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Down and Dropping ENE trade wind swell wrap + occ pulse of SSW. Some sideshore lump, especially over the reefs. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2.5'. Shorebreak is cleaner with some nice peaks at 1-2.5' and focused by Gas Chambers. Few clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Dropping 10 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy Surf at 1-3' and occ breaking on the outside left. Keiki's is smaller at 1-2.5' with nice sand bars. Few clouds.
Cholos

Winds

Wednesday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Thursday
Range:
5-15+mph ENE Trade
Leeward PM sea breezes
Friday
Range:
5-10mph East Trade
Leeward PM sea breezes
Saturday
Range:
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes
Sunday
Range:
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes

North

Wednesday
11/20

Primary

Rising Slow 17s NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores

Thursday
11/21

Primary

Up & holding 13s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Up & Rising 12s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good

Friday
11/22

Primary

Up & holding 12s NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 11s NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good

Saturday
11/23

Primary

Rising 16s NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising 17s WNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
5' later
Sunday
11/24

Primary

Up & Rising 13s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Up & dropping 13s NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
6' later
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West

Wednesday
11/20

Primary

Rising Slow 17s NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Thursday
11/21

Primary

Up & holding 13s NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 15s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Friday
11/22

Primary

Up & holding 12s NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Saturday
11/23

Primary

Rising 16s NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Sunday
11/24

Primary

Up & Rising 13s NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 11s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
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South

Wednesday
11/20

Primary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Thursday
11/21

Primary

Holding 15s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
11/22

Primary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Saturday
11/23

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin

Sunday
11/24

Primary

Holding 11s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm

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east

Wednesday
11/20

Primary

Dropping 10s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy

Thursday
11/21

Primary

Dropping 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising 12s N
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy

Friday
11/22

Primary

Up & holding 12s NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 8s ENE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy

Saturday
11/23

Primary

Rising 16s NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
4' later
Sunday
11/24

Primary

Dropping 13s NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 11/20
Primary: Dropping 10s E surf @1-3 
Secondary: Rising Slow 17s NW surf @1 occ 2 
Third: Dropping 14s SSW surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   11/20
None.
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   11/20
Good due to moderate E-ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   11/20
North shores: Good due to light to moderate trades and a small surf. West shores: Good due to tiny surf and moderate offshore trades. South shores: Good due to tiny surf and moderate trades. East shores: Fair due to small to average surf and moderate trades.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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