630am OBS, Thursday, October 17th
Scattered clouds. Moderate ENE trades filling. Small Craft Advisory from Maui to Hawaii.
Small fading NNW. Tiny South & average ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Down & dropping now small 11sec N-NNW. Good with light to moderate side offshore ENE trades filling. Sunset 2-3' barely workable; Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 0-2' swell passing by; Chuns 1-3'; Laniakea 2-3' occ +; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Scattered clouds.West:
Down & dropping tiny NNW + Dropping 10 sec SSE. Clean offshore under light to moderate Trades. Makaha is 0-1.5' with some rare 2' with fair shape. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Down and Dropping South to SSE with Lanai buoy showing a 1.5' 10s SSW. Clean due to light offshore ENE Trades filling. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1-occ. weak 2'. Mostly clear skies.Diamond Head:
Down and dropping short period SSE with small Windswell wrap. Bumpy with moderate side shore ENE trades. Surf's 1-2' average at takeoff. Few clouds.Sandy's:
Down & Dropping North wrap + holding trade swell + Dropping SSE. Ruffle from moderate sideshore ENE trades. Full Pt/Half Pt to Generals are 1-2.5'. Shorebreak is cleaner at 1-2' occ. 2.5'. Partly cloudy skies.East Makapu'u:
Down and Dropping North wrap + Holding 7 sec ENE trade wind swell. Bumpy moderate to fresh trades. Surf's 1-2.5' mostly inside and chance of occasionally showing outside middle and peeling into the Keiki shorebreak on the right side of the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-15+mph ENE Trade
5-10mph ENE Trade
Seabreezes toward lunch
5-10mph NE Trade
Seabreezes toward lunch
10-20+mph ENE Trade
10-20mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
NoneHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 10s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 11s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
+ R midday 15s NW@1-1.5
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
3' later
Primary
Up & holding 11s NWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 10s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 12s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
West
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 11s SSEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 10s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Holding 11s SSEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 11s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Holding 15s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 10s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 14s SWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
South
Primary
Dropping 11s SSEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Holding 12s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary
Holding 11s SSEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising Later 18s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Holding 11s SSEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 15s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 10s SSEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 14s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Nightime 19s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
east
Primary
Dropping 6s ENEHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 11s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 10s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Current Swells:
Thursday 10/17Primary: Dropping 11s NNW surf @2-3
Secondary: Dropping 6s ENE surf @1-2 occ +
Third: Dropping 11s SSE surf @0-1.5
Marine Warnings:
Thursday 10/17Small Craft Advisory from O'ahu to Big Island
Sailing Report:
Thursday 10/17Good due to moderate ENE trades.
Diving Report:
Thursday 10/17North shores: Poor to fair due to lingering small N to NNW. West shores: Good esp. for deeper dives (2' NNW). South shores: Good overall and esp. for deeper zones, due to small surf with moderate side-offshore ENE trades under partly cloudy. East shores: Fair overall due to 2' North wrap and 2.5' Wind swell... moderate onshore trades under partly cloudy skies.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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